WTI OIL - Long-term low most likely in
NGAS NL - Support from July low to be taken out before rebound
GOLD - More sideway action before taking out $2k
COPPER - On yearly resistance and 200 dma
SUGAR - Expected to head towards $30 soon
WHEAT - False break-down expected before a push higher
The correction which started late September @ 89.43$ slightly exceeded our target but is most likely over as MACD is exhibiting bullish divergence and RSI is pickling up from oversold levels. We expect the $80 level where lies the 21 dma and the October low to provide some short-term resistance, but the $73.77 level printed a couple sessions ago is very likely to hold for the long term.
NL Nat Gas has been churning between €56.0 and €44.5 for nearly six weeks and the range is getting tighter. Both the 55dma and the support from the July lows are nearby and Nat Gas is expected to “wake up” soon. Our preferred scenario would be a breakdown towards €40, taking out both the support and 55dma to shake out the longs before an impulsive up move.
Gold is well oriented, but the $2000 key level seems difficult to surpass. We expect the market to correct towards $1960 and $1930 at worst, before another bounce which should then successfully break $2k.
Copper rose to the resistance which has been capping the market throughout this year and which also corresponds to the 200 dma. With such resistances, we expect Copper to correct towards the $372 pivot before shooting higher.
Sugar has been churning between $26 & $ $28 for nearly two months but considering the 21 & 55 dma are both nearby and rising, an upward breakout looks very likely in the coming sessions, aiming at the top of the UT channel near $30.
Wheat is sitting both on the long-term support connecting the lows of the past seven years and on a double bottom on the dailies. Considering the chart pattern from the recent $600 high, and the fact that the market loves to hurt the largest numbers of participants, a break of the significant $40 bottom is expected, taking out the longs in the process, but with a low nearby, and a genuine rally thereafter.
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