WTI OIL - Turning bullish but short term overbought
NGAS NL - Constructive behavior
GOLD - Correcting in a triangle before new highs
COPPER - Three-year long congestion likely over
SUGAR - Completely blurry
WHEAT - Bottoming out
The upward overlapping patterns of the first nine weeks of the year gave us the impression that WTI was in a corrective upswing, but the impulsive move of the past five sessions is leaving us perplexed. Moving averages are now positioned quite well for a continuation of the bullish move. Nevertheless, WTI is at the top end of the current UT channel and RSI is at the most overbought level since last September. We expect a drop towards the $80.25 support before a possible leg higher.
The picture is starting to look constructive with a succession of higher lows and higher highs while the 21dma is pointing North for the first time in five months. We expect a continuation of the uptrend towards the 200 dma (35€)
Following the strong impulsive mover which took Gold up $170 in seven sessions, the metal has been correcting mildly in a triangle pattern for the past week. We expect a possible retouch of the December high @ 2135$ before a swing to new highs.
The upswing from the February lows unfolded in five impulsive waves leading us to believe that Copper has ended its three-year long congestion. Expect the on-going correction from the 414$ high to carry on for a couple weeks with a minimum target of $395 before another leg higher.
The chart pattern is blurry, moving averages are giving conflicting signals while both MACD and RSI are at neutral levels. Under these circumstances, the conviction level is low, but the market does look like it wants to at least re-test the recent 20.53c low.
Despite steeply declining moving averages, we still believe that the 523 low will hold. With the MACD giving a fresh Buy signal, we expect Wheat to reach 585$ with the coming sessions.
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About the Author: Joachim DJIAN
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