WTI OIL - Bullish but short term overbought
NGAS NL - Constructive behavior
GOLD - Sideway price action before resumption of uptrend
COPPER - Congesting above $395 before a possible leg higher
SUGAR - Getting constructive
WHEAT - Bottoming out
WTI is well oriented to reach the August 2023 high @ 83.86$ but the market is currently overbought. We expect a couple weeks of sideway action before another likely push higher.
The picture is starting to look constructive with a succession of higher lows and higher highs while the 21dma is about to make its first bullish cross above the 55dma in eight months. We expect a continuation of the uptrend towards the Feb high @ 31.22€.
The up move from the Feb low @ 1985$ to last week’s high @ 2220$ appears to be complete. We expect sideway price action between $2200 and $2130 over the next few sessions before a resumption of the uptrend.
The upswing from the February lows unfolded in five impulsive waves leading us to believe that Copper has ended its three-year long congestion. Expect the on-going correction from the 414$ high to carry on for a couple weeks with a minimum target of $395 before another leg higher.
The chart pattern is still blurry but nevertheless getting constructive for bulls with the 21dma flattening and prices breaking out of a minor downtrend. With a low conviction level, we will forecast a return top the 200dma and yearly resistance near 23.50c over the next few weeks.
Wheat is a bit heavy, but we still expect the 523.5$ low top hold and forecast Wheat to trade near 590$ within a week or two.
Disclaimers
About the Author: Joachim DJIAN
Author’s Conflict of Interest, if relevant: None
MUFPS Disclaimers:
This communication constitutes an investment recommendation within the meaning of the Market Abuse Regulation EU 596/2014 (MAR). The content has been prepared solely for the purpose of providing information to clients of Marina UFP SAS. This material contains the views, opinions, and trade ideas of author (sender) and should not be construed as investment advice as defined by the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive 2014/65/EU (MiFID II). Investors must make their own determination and investment decisions.
To discharge its obligations under MAR, Mariana UFP SAS has provided relevant disclosures regarding conflicts of interest as well as underlying assumptions, valuations or methodologies used to evaluate financial instruments or issuers or to set price targets, which can be found here https://marianaufp.com/regulatory/
Under MiFID II Delegated Regulation 2017/565 article 36 (2), this document is not Independent Investment Research and therefore: This document has not been developed in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and its author(s) is/are not subject to any prohibition on dealing in the relevant financial instrument ahead of the dissemination of the marketing communication.
This document is intended only for the use of the individuals or entities to which it is addressed and may not be altered, reproduced, redistributed, or passed on to any other third party, in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of Mariana UFP SAS. In the event of a written consent any alteration, reproduction, redistribution or passing this document to any other party would have to be performed in accordance with Chapter III of MAR Delegated Regulation 2016/958.
This communication has been prepared by Joachim Djian, a member of Mariana UFP SAS (“MUFPs”). MUFP is regulated by the ACPR and the AMF BIC code: 14483