WTI OIL - Crash
NGAS NL - Reached top end of UT channel
GOLD - Correction has a bit further to go
COPPER - First corrective wave nearly over
SUGAR - 19.00c-resistance expected to be taken out
WHEAT - Close top temp low but correction has further to go
Crude, which had been giving conflicting signals for the past couple weeks, started accelerating on the way down yesterday immediately after breaking below the LT support and 200 dma. July WTI is now down $7 in five sessions and RSI is at highly oversold levels, but MACD still has some room for the downside. We expect the final low to occur in the $72 - $70 range withing the next week or two.
Yesterday, NL NatGas reached the top end of the UT channel in place for the past four months @ 38.70€ and started dropping. The upswing from late-April low @ 27.87€ occurred in five swings, reinforcing our conviction that the up move is complete and that the market should reach the bottom of the channel near 32.50€ before expecting a bounce.
Gold’s 55dma, which is usually a good support – resistance level in trending markets was touched on yesterday’s low @ 2315$. While a bottom might be in, we would prefer to see further correction, ideally towards the 2277 $ – 2250 $ area before expecting a solid long-term bounce.
The violent downswing that started from the $520-high appears to have a bit further to go as RSI is barely below the 50 threshold. We expect the market to bottom near the May low @ 447$ before entering wave “B” which should take coper back towards $490 before another downswing.
After placing what appears to be a serious long-term low @ 17.95c, Sugar is struggling to break the 19.00c level. We nevertheless expect this level to be taken out soon, pushing the July contract towards the 55dma & May high near 20.00c
Wheat might have placed a temporary low near the $666 pivot this morning, but the market is not expected to bottom for the long term before reaching the 630$ - 620$ area which corresponds to the April high and 200dma.
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