DOLLAR - Is the top in, or a bit more room on the upside?
EURUSD - Prolonged sideway correction expected
USDJPY - Top likely in, targeting 145
GBPUSD - Upside breakout expected soon
EURGBP - On its way to 2023 low
XBTUSD - First downside target met, corrective rebound expected
We had been targeting the December 2023 high @ 104.26 for a top and today’s reversal is putting doubt on this target. Neither oscillators nor moving averages, nor price action are giving any strong signal. With a low conviction level, we will call a top for now, but the correction probably has further to go in duration.
The drop from the 11th of January high did not reach our target 1.0724 target as the market seems to have reversed yesterday. With no clear signal coming from indicators, our best bet is for a sideway market between 1.10 and 1.07 for the coming weeks.
We believe the rebound which started from 140.25 late December ended yesterday, and that the Yen should appreciate from here. Our first short-term target is 145 which corresponds to the December pivot high and 21dma.
As the dollar was appreciating across the board, GBP was remarkably stable, trading in a tight 200 pips range for five weeks. Now that the dollar might have placed a temporary high, it looks likely that GBP will break out of the range soon, targeting last year’s high @ 1.3142.
EURGBP has been trading around the 0.855 support for five sessions and considering the previous trend and orientation of moving averages, it looks likely a downside breakout will occur soon, targeting the 2023 low @ 0.85.
Last week, we mentioned XBT had likely topped and were targeting $38k. As the market nearly touched our first target yesterday, we now expect an up leg towards $43,5k minimum, before another swing down.
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About the Author: Joachim DJIAN
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