DOLLAR - Convergence of moving averages
EURUSD - Convergence of moving averages
USDJPY - Congesting under the breakout level
GBPUSD - Heading towards the 1.25 pivot
EURGBP - Conflicting scenarios
XBTUSD - Expected to double top
While the chart pattern is blurry, it is noteworthy that the main moving averages (21 / 55 / 200) are converging to the same level, which is usually a prelude to a strong directional move after two years of sideway trading (between 100 & 108). In the shorter term, we expect a continuation of the bullish move up to 105 followed by a minor correction.
The chart pattern is blurry while RSI is neutral and MCAD mildly bearish. However, the convergence of moving averages after 18 months of sideway trading is usually a prelude to a strong directional move. In the shorter term, we expect the Euro to drop some 100-150 pips before correcting upwards.
USDJPY has been trading in a tight range for a week just under the ultra-significant 152 level. We expect this level to be taken out with a violent and short rally, followed by an equally strong BOJ intervention.
The down move which started from 1.2894 early March is expected to carry on thill the 1.2519 support (Feb low). As this level is a significant pivot, whether it will break, or hold, might give an important clue as to the direction of the dollar in the coming weeks.
EURGBP rose to 200dma as expected and started correcting. While we favor a return towards the 0.85 support, it is noteworthy that the 21&55 dmas are doing a bullish cross and a break above the 0.86 level would invalidate our bearish scenario.
Even if the drop from $73,8k to 60,8k was violent, it appears too shallow compared with the previous rise to mark the end of the correction. We expect XBT to nearly double top before another corrective down leg towards the recent $60,8k support.
Disclaimers
About the Author: Joachim DJIAN
Author’s Conflict of Interest, if relevant: None
MUFPS Disclaimers:
This communication constitutes an investment recommendation within the meaning of the Market Abuse Regulation EU 596/2014 (MAR). The content has been prepared solely for the purpose of providing information to clients of Marina UFP SAS. This material contains the views, opinions, and trade ideas of author (sender) and should not be construed as investment advice as defined by the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive 2014/65/EU (MiFID II). Investors must make their own determination and investment decisions.
To discharge its obligations under MAR, Mariana UFP SAS has provided relevant disclosures regarding conflicts of interest as well as underlying assumptions, valuations or methodologies used to evaluate financial instruments or issuers or to set price targets, which can be found here https://marianaufp.com/regulatory/
Under MiFID II Delegated Regulation 2017/565 article 36 (2), this document is not Independent Investment Research and therefore: This document has not been developed in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and its author(s) is/are not subject to any prohibition on dealing in the relevant financial instrument ahead of the dissemination of the marketing communication.
This document is intended only for the use of the individuals or entities to which it is addressed and may not be altered, reproduced, redistributed, or passed on to any other third party, in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of Mariana UFP SAS. In the event of a written consent any alteration, reproduction, redistribution or passing this document to any other party would have to be performed in accordance with Chapter III of MAR Delegated Regulation 2016/958.
This communication has been prepared by Joachim Djian, a member of Mariana UFP SAS (“MUFPs”). MUFP is regulated by the ACPR and the AMF BIC code: 14483